Donetsk remained the focus of Russian hostilities in Ukraine, followed by Kherson and Kharkiv, and no notable changes in the levels of reported fighting were identified in the major combat zones. These areas are assessed to remain the main hotspots during the war in the near future.

While areas in central and western Ukraine are assessed to be facing a lower risk of violence in comparison to eastern or southern Ukraine, there is a continued risk of aerial attacks targeting Kyiv and other cities in inner Ukraine. Furthermore, Russia may retaliate against a Ukrainian counteroffensive by escalating aerial attacks targeting Kyiv, in addition to other western Ukrainian cities that are located outside of the current conflict zones.